News & Tech Tips

How to forecast smarter

Financial forecasting provides a roadmap to guide your organization on the path to success. Forecasts support strategic planning by helping you allocate resources efficiently, manage risks effectively, and optimize capital investments. However, today’s dynamic marketplace is uncharted territory, so you can’t rely solely on historical data. Reliable forecasts also consider external market trends and professional insights. Here are some tips to strengthen your forecasting models and help you avoid common pitfalls.

Determine the optimal approach

What’s the right forecasting method for your situation? The answer depends on several critical factors, including:

Forecast length. Short-term forecasts (that cover a year or less) often rely more heavily on historical data. These plans focus primarily on the organization’s immediate needs. Long-term forecasts require more qualitative inputs to account for uncertainties, such as market disruptions, economic shifts, and changing regulations and consumer behaviors. These plans are essential to support strategic decisions and attract funding from investors and lenders. The longer your forecast period is, the more likely internal and external conditions will change. So, short-term forecasts tend to be more accurate than long-term plans. Long-term forecasts may need to be updated as market conditions evolve.

Stability of demand. Industries with consistent sales patterns may be able to use straightforward historical data analysis. However, those with seasonal and cyclical fluctuations might need to incorporate techniques like time-series decomposition to adjust for peaks and downturns. Companies experiencing unpredictable demand might consider using advanced forecasting software that integrates real-time sales data and external variables to enhance accuracy.

Availability of historical data. Techniques such as exponential smoothing require at least three years of data to generate reliable projections. For businesses launching new products or entering new markets, qualitative forecasting methods that incorporate expert opinions and market research may be more effective.

Business offerings. Companies with a wide range of products and services may prefer simplified forecasting models. Conversely, those with a focused product line can achieve greater accuracy with more complex statistical models.

Relying on just one forecasting model can be problematic. What happens if the forecast model gets things wrong? It may be more prudent to use a combination of approaches tailored to individual products and locations. Considering the results from multiple forecasting approaches can lead to better outcomes, especially when managing inventory levels.

Implement advanced forecasting techniques

Businesses seeking greater forecasting accuracy can implement advanced techniques, such as:

  • Time-series analysis, which breaks historical data into trend, seasonal, and cyclical components to better understand patterns,
  • Regression models that identify relationships between financial variables to improve prediction accuracy,
  • Scenario planning that prepares best-case, worst-case, and expected forecasts,
  • Sensitivity analysis that determines which forecasting assumptions have the greatest impact on expected financial outcomes, and
  • Rolling forecasts that are continuously updated based on current data to provide greater flexibility and adaptability.

Increasingly, businesses are leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance forecasting precision. These technologies analyze large datasets quickly, identify trends, and adjust predictions dynamically based on real-time changes. By integrating AI-driven forecasting tools, businesses can optimize their decision-making and gain a competitive edge.

Seek outside guidance

Financial statements are often the starting point for forecasts. Our accounting and auditing team can help ensure your historical data is accurate and then guide you through the process of developing reliable, market-driven forecasts based on your current needs. From developing realistic assumptions and reliable models to tracking forecast accuracy and updating for market shifts, we’ve got you covered. Contact us for more information.

Taming the tax tangle if you’re retiring soon – tax implications

Retirement is often viewed as an opportunity to travel, spend time with family, or simply enjoy the fruits of a long career. Yet the transition may bring a tangle of tax considerations. Planning carefully can help you minimize tax bills. Below are four steps to take if you’re approaching retirement, along with the tax implications.

 

1.Consider your post-career lifestyle

Begin by assessing what retirement might look like for you. For example, will you relocate to a different state or downsize by selling your home? Will you continue to work part-time?

Tax implications: Moving to a state with lower income or property taxes may stretch your retirement savings. If you sell your home and the capital gain exceeds $250,000 ($500,000 for married couples filing jointly), you’ll need to pay tax on the amount over the exclusion limit. And if you work part-time, your earnings could reduce your Social Security benefits (depending on your age) or push you into a higher tax bracket.

 

2.Assess your income sources

Social Security is a major income component for many retirees, and deciding when to start collecting benefits is crucial. The government will permanently reduce your monthly benefit if you begin collecting before your full retirement age. Conversely, if you delay benefits past your full retirement age (up to age 70), you’ll receive larger monthly payments.

Tax implications: Depending on your total income (including wages, retirement distributions, and taxable investment income), up to 85% of your Social Security benefits could be taxable. Proper planning can help you manage taxable income and potentially reduce or avoid higher taxes on benefits.

If you’re fortunate enough to have a pension, find out your payout options. Some pensions offer lump-sum distributions, while others offer monthly annuity payments.

Tax implications: Most pension income is taxable at ordinary income tax rates.

In addition to retirement accounts, you may have savings and investments in brokerage accounts that can supplement your income.

Tax implications: Capital gains and dividends may be taxed differently than ordinary income, potentially at lower rates. Strategic withdrawals from taxable accounts and retirement accounts can help you manage your overall tax liability.

 

3.Develop a retirement account withdrawal strategy

Once you turn 73, you must take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from most tax-deferred retirement accounts, such as traditional IRAs and 401(k)s. Failing to do so can result in hefty penalties.

Tax implications: RMDs are treated as ordinary income for tax purposes. If you don’t need them for living expenses, you might consider a qualified charitable distribution (QCD) to lower your taxable income. With a QCD, funds go directly from your retirement account to a qualified charity. They can count toward your RMD but aren’t included in your taxable income.

Distributions from Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s are generally tax-free (if holding-period requirements are met), making them valuable tools for reducing taxes in retirement. If you have traditional and Roth accounts, you might choose to take withdrawals from Roth accounts in years when you want to manage your tax bracket more carefully.

Tax implications: Roth accounts don’t require RMDs during the original owner’s lifetime.

 

4.Plan for health care expenses

Medical costs can significantly impact retirees. Medicare premiums, hospital visits, prescriptions, and potential long-term care are just some of the expenses that can eat into your retirement savings without careful planning.

Tax implications: Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) allow for tax-deductible contributions, tax-free growth, and tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses. If you’re retiring soon and have a high-deductible health plan, maximizing HSA contributions can be a smart move. In addition, qualified medical expenses can sometimes be deducted if they exceed a certain percentage of your adjusted gross income (AGI).

 

Final thoughts

Retirement can span decades, and tax laws frequently change. By combining various withdrawal strategies and staying proactive about tax changes, you can tame the tax tangle. These are only some of the tax issues and implications. Contact us. We can help forecast tax outcomes under different scenarios and advise on strategies that complement your retirement goals.

Looking ahead to 2025 tax limits as you prepare to file your 2024 return

Chances are, you’re more concerned about your 2024 tax return right now than you are about your 2025 tax situation. That’s understandable because your 2024 individual tax return is due to be filed by April 15 (unless you file for an extension).

However, it’s a good time to familiarize yourself with tax amounts that may have changed for 2025 due to inflation. Not all tax figures are adjusted annually for inflation, and some amounts only change when Congress passes new laws.

In addition, there may be tax changes due to what’s happening in Washington. With Republicans in control of both the White House and Congress, we expect major tax law changes in the coming months. With that in mind, here are some Q&As about 2025 tax limits.

I haven’t been able to itemize deductions on my last few tax returns. Will I qualify for 2025?

Beginning in 2018, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act eliminated the ability to itemize deductions for many people by increasing the standard deduction and reducing or eliminating various deductions. For 2025, the standard deduction amount is $30,000 for married couples filing jointly (up from $29,200 in 2024). For single filers, the amount is $15,000 (up from $14,600 in 2024), and for heads of households, it’s $22,500 (up from $21,900 in 2024). If the total amount of your itemized deductions (including mortgage interest) is less than the applicable standard deduction amount, you won’t itemize for 2025.

If I don’t itemize deductions, can I claim charitable deductions on my 2025 return?

Generally, taxpayers who claim the standard deduction on their federal tax returns can’t deduct charitable donations.

How much can I contribute to an IRA for 2025?

If you’re eligible, you can contribute up to $7,000 a year to a traditional or Roth IRA. If you earn less than $7,000 during the year, you can contribute up to 100% of your earned income. (This is unchanged from 2024.) If you’re 50 or older, you can make an additional $1,000 “catch-up” contribution (for 2024 and 2025).
I have a 401(k) plan with my employer. How much can I contribute to it?

In 2025, you can contribute up to $23,500 to a 401(k) or 403(b) plan (up from $23,000 in 2024). You can make an additional $7,500 catch-up contribution if you’re age 50 or older (for 2024 and 2025). However, there’s something new this year for 401(k) and 403(b) participants of certain ages. Beginning in 2025, those who are age 60, 61, 62, or 63 can make catch-up contributions of up to $11,250.

I occasionally hire a cleaning person. Am I required to withhold and pay FICA tax on the amounts I pay him or her?

In 2025, the threshold for when a domestic employer must withhold and pay FICA for babysitters, house cleaners, etc. who are independent contractors is $2,800 (up from $2,700 in 2024).

How much of my earnings are taxed for Social Security in 2025?

The Social Security tax “wage base” is $176,100 for this year (up from $168,600 in 2024). That means you don’t owe Social Security tax on amounts earned above that. (You must pay Medicare tax on all amounts you earn.)

How much can I give to one person without triggering a gift tax return in 2025?

The annual gift tax exclusion for 2025 is $19,000 (up from $18,000 in 2024).

How will the changes in Washington affect taxes this year and in the future?

We obviously can’t predict the future with certainty. The specifics of any new tax legislation depend on various political and economic factors. However, there are likely to be many changes in the next few years. President Trump and Republicans have signaled that they’d like to extend and possibly make permanent the provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expire after 2025. They’ve also discussed raising or eliminating the cap on the state and local tax deductions. Other proposals include expanding the Child Tax Credit and making certain types of income (tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits) tax-free. Some of these tax breaks could become effective for the 2025 tax year.

Changes ahead

These are only some of the tax amounts and potential changes that may apply to you. Contact us if you have questions or need more information.

Funding your business: What small business owners need to know about financing

Running a small business often requires periodic cash infusions, and knowing how to secure the right funding can determine whether your business succeeds or struggles. Let’s explore the three primary types of funding available to small businesses: debt, equity, and hybrid financing.

Debt: Borrowing to grow

Debt financing involves borrowing money and repaying it with interest over time. This category includes traditional bank loans, such as term loans, lines of credit, and Small Business Administration loans.

One key advantage of debt financing is that you maintain ownership of your business. However, loan payments can strain cash flow, and lenders often require collateral. If you fail to make payments, creditors can claim ownership of the collateral and, in some cases, sue your business or the owner(s) personally for repayment.

Debt financing works best for businesses with steady revenue streams to ensure timely payments. By retaining ownership, you preserve control over decision-making, but it’s critical to evaluate whether your cash flow can sustain regular loan payments.

Equity: Trading ownership for capital

Equity financing involves selling part of your business to investors in exchange for funding. Common sources include:

Unlike debt, equity financing doesn’t require repayment. But you relinquish some ownership and possibly a portion of future profits.

This approach may benefit start-ups or high-growth companies that can’t qualify for traditional loans due to a lack of profitability or solid credit history. While equity investors can provide valuable expertise and connections, you’ll need to weigh the trade-off of shared decision-making and reduced control over your business.

Hybrid financing: Combining debt and equity

Hybrid financing blends elements of debt and equity. Examples include convertible notes (debt that can convert into equity under specific conditions) and revenue-based financing (where repayment is tied to a percentage of your future revenue). These options are often more flexible, aligning payment terms with business performance.

Hybrid financing is ideal for business owners seeking customized funding solutions. It allows you to leverage the benefits of debt and equity. However, the terms can be complex and require careful negotiation.

Financial statements matter

Accurate financial statements are essential to securing funding. Lenders and investors will require a detailed financial package that includes the following three reports:

  • Income statements to highlight revenue, costs, and profits,
  • Balance sheets to summarize assets and liabilities and
  • Statements of cash flows to show how money moves through your business.

In addition, lenders or investors may ask for supporting reports, such as accounts receivable aging, breakdowns of major expense categories, and information about owners and key employees. These documents provide insight into your business’s financial health and operations, helping potential funders assess the risks and potential rewards of their investment.

Most lenders and investors require at least two to three years of historical financial data and projections for the next two to three years. These reports should tell a clear, compelling story about your business’s financial stability and growth potential.

What’s right for your business?

Selecting the right financing option depends on your business model, growth stage, long-term goals, and risk tolerance. As your business’s needs evolve, it may use a combination of debt, equity, and hybrid financing. We can help you maintain accurate financial records and understand the pros and cons of each option. Contact us to help you make informed decisions to fund your business’s growth.

The standard business mileage rate increased in 2025

The nationwide price of gas is slightly higher than it was a year ago, and the 2025 optional standard mileage rate used to calculate the deductible cost of operating an automobile for business has also gone up. The IRS recently announced that the 2025 cents-per-mile rate for the business use of a car, van, pickup,

or panel truck is 70 cents. In 2024, the business cents-per-mile rate was 67 cents per mile. This rate applies to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles as well as electric and hybrid-electric vehicles.

The process of calculating rates

The 3-cent increase from the 2024 rate goes along with the recent price of gas. On January 17, 2025, the national average price of a gallon of regular gas was $3.11, compared with $3.08 a year earlier, according to AAA Fuel Prices. However, the standard mileage rate is calculated based on all the costs involved in driving a vehicle — not just the price of gas.

The business cents-per-mile rate is adjusted annually. It’s based on an annual study commissioned by the IRS about the fixed and variable costs of operating a vehicle, including gas, maintenance, repairs, and depreciation. Occasionally, if there’s a substantial change in average gas prices, the IRS will change the cents-per-mile rate midyear.

Standard rate or real expenses

Businesses can generally deduct the actual expenses attributable to business use of a vehicle. These include gas, oil, tires, insurance, repairs, licenses, and vehicle registration fees. In addition, you can claim a depreciation allowance for the vehicle. However, in many cases, certain limits apply to depreciation write-offs on vehicles that don’t apply to other types of business assets.

The cents-per-mile rate is beneficial if you don’t want to keep track of actual vehicle-related expenses. With this method, you don’t have to account for all your actual expenses. However, you still must record certain information, such as the mileage for each business trip, the date, and the destination.

Using the cents-per-mile rate is also popular with businesses that reimburse employees for business use of their personal vehicles. These reimbursements can help attract and retain employees who drive their personal vehicles a great deal for business purposes. Why? Under current law, employees can’t deduct unreimbursed employee business expenses, such as business mileage, on their own income tax returns.

If you do use the cents-per-mile rate, keep in mind that you must comply with various rules. If you don’t comply, the reimbursements could be considered taxable wages to the employees.

When you can’t use the standard rate

There are some cases when you can’t use the cents-per-mile rate. It partly depends on how you’ve claimed deductions for the same vehicle in the past. In other situations, it depends on whether the vehicle is new to your business this year or whether you want to take advantage of certain first-year depreciation tax breaks on it.

As you can see, there are many factors to consider when deciding whether to use the standard mileage rate to deduct vehicle expenses. We can help if you have questions about tracking and claiming such expenses in 2025 — or claiming 2024 expenses on your 2024 income tax return.