Financial forecasting provides a roadmap to guide your organization on the path to success. Forecasts support strategic planning by helping you allocate resources efficiently, manage risks effectively, and optimize capital investments. However, today’s dynamic marketplace is uncharted territory, so you can’t rely solely on historical data. Reliable forecasts also consider external market trends and professional insights. Here are some tips to strengthen your forecasting models and help you avoid common pitfalls.

Determine the optimal approach

What’s the right forecasting method for your situation? The answer depends on several critical factors, including:

Forecast length. Short-term forecasts (that cover a year or less) often rely more heavily on historical data. These plans focus primarily on the organization’s immediate needs. Long-term forecasts require more qualitative inputs to account for uncertainties, such as market disruptions, economic shifts, and changing regulations and consumer behaviors. These plans are essential to support strategic decisions and attract funding from investors and lenders. The longer your forecast period is, the more likely internal and external conditions will change. So, short-term forecasts tend to be more accurate than long-term plans. Long-term forecasts may need to be updated as market conditions evolve.

Stability of demand. Industries with consistent sales patterns may be able to use straightforward historical data analysis. However, those with seasonal and cyclical fluctuations might need to incorporate techniques like time-series decomposition to adjust for peaks and downturns. Companies experiencing unpredictable demand might consider using advanced forecasting software that integrates real-time sales data and external variables to enhance accuracy.

Availability of historical data. Techniques such as exponential smoothing require at least three years of data to generate reliable projections. For businesses launching new products or entering new markets, qualitative forecasting methods that incorporate expert opinions and market research may be more effective.

Business offerings. Companies with a wide range of products and services may prefer simplified forecasting models. Conversely, those with a focused product line can achieve greater accuracy with more complex statistical models.

Relying on just one forecasting model can be problematic. What happens if the forecast model gets things wrong? It may be more prudent to use a combination of approaches tailored to individual products and locations. Considering the results from multiple forecasting approaches can lead to better outcomes, especially when managing inventory levels.

Implement advanced forecasting techniques

Businesses seeking greater forecasting accuracy can implement advanced techniques, such as:

• Time-series analysis, which breaks historical data into trend, seasonal, and cyclical components to better understand patterns,
• Regression models that identify relationships between financial variables to improve prediction accuracy,
• Scenario planning that prepares best-case, worst-case, and expected forecasts,
• Sensitivity analysis that determines which forecasting assumptions have the greatest impact on expected financial outcomes, and
• Rolling forecasts that are continuously updated based on current data to provide greater flexibility and adaptability.

Increasingly, businesses are leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance forecasting precision. These technologies analyze large datasets quickly, identify trends, and adjust predictions dynamically based on real-time changes. By integrating AI-driven forecasting tools, businesses can optimize their decision-making and gain a competitive edge.

Seek outside guidance

Financial statements are often the starting point for forecasts. Our accounting and auditing team can help ensure your historical data is accurate and then guide you through the process of developing reliable, market-driven forecasts based on your current needs. From developing realistic assumptions and reliable models to tracking forecast accuracy and updating for market shifts, we’ve got you covered. Contact us for more information.

Running a small business often requires periodic cash infusions, and knowing how to secure the right funding can determine whether your business succeeds or struggles. Let’s explore the three primary types of funding available to small businesses: debt, equity, and hybrid financing.

Debt: Borrowing to grow

Debt financing involves borrowing money and repaying it with interest over time. This category includes traditional bank loans, such as term loans, lines of credit, and Small Business Administration loans.

One key advantage of debt financing is that you maintain ownership of your business. However, loan payments can strain cash flow, and lenders often require collateral. If you fail to make payments, creditors can claim ownership of the collateral and, in some cases, sue your business or the owner(s) personally for repayment.

Debt financing works best for businesses with steady revenue streams to ensure timely payments. By retaining ownership, you preserve control over decision-making, but it’s critical to evaluate whether your cash flow can sustain regular loan payments.

Equity: Trading ownership for capital

Equity financing involves selling part of your business to investors in exchange for funding. Common sources include:

• Angel investors,
• Venture capital firms, and
• Crowdfunding platforms.

Unlike debt, equity financing doesn’t require repayment. But you relinquish some ownership and possibly a portion of future profits.

This approach may benefit start-ups or high-growth companies that can’t qualify for traditional loans due to a lack of profitability or solid credit history. While equity investors can provide valuable expertise and connections, you’ll need to weigh the trade-off of shared decision-making and reduced control over your business.

Hybrid financing: Combining debt and equity

Hybrid financing blends elements of debt and equity. Examples include convertible notes (debt that can convert into equity under specific conditions) and revenue-based financing (where repayment is tied to a percentage of your future revenue). These options are often more flexible, aligning payment terms with business performance.

Hybrid financing is ideal for business owners seeking customized funding solutions. It allows you to leverage the benefits of debt and equity. However, the terms can be complex and require careful negotiation.

Financial statements matter

Accurate financial statements are essential to securing funding. Lenders and investors will require a detailed financial package that includes the following three reports:

• Income statements to highlight revenue, costs, and profits,
• Balance sheets to summarize assets and liabilities and
• Statements of cash flows to show how money moves through your business.

In addition, lenders or investors may ask for supporting reports, such as accounts receivable aging, breakdowns of major expense categories, and information about owners and key employees. These documents provide insight into your business’s financial health and operations, helping potential funders assess the risks and potential rewards of their investment.

Most lenders and investors require at least two to three years of historical financial data and projections for the next two to three years. These reports should tell a clear, compelling story about your business’s financial stability and growth potential.

What’s right for your business?

Selecting the right financing option depends on your business model, growth stage, long-term goals, and risk tolerance. As your business’s needs evolve, it may use a combination of debt, equity, and hybrid financing. We can help you maintain accurate financial records and understand the pros and cons of each option. Contact us to help you make informed decisions to fund your business’s growth.

Auditing standards require auditors to identify and assess the risks of material misstatement due to fraud and to determine overall and specific responses to those risks. Here are some answers to questions about what auditors assess when interviewing company personnel to evaluate potential fraud risks.

What’s on your auditor’s radar?

When planning audit fieldwork, your audit team meets to brainstorm potential company- and industry-specific risks and outline specific areas of inquiry and high-risk accounts. This sets the stage for inquiries during audit fieldwork. Entities being audited sometimes feel fraud-related questions are probing and invasive, but interviews must be conducted for every audit. Auditors can’t just assume that fraud risks are the same as those that existed in the previous accounting period.

Specific areas of inquiry under Clarified Statement on Auditing Standards Section 240, Consideration of Fraud in a Financial Statement Audit, include:

• Whether management has knowledge of any actual, suspected, or alleged fraud,
• Management’s process for identifying, responding to, and monitoring the fraud risks in the entity,
• The nature, extent, and frequency of management’s assessment of fraud risks and the results of those assessments,
• Any specific fraud risks that management has identified or that have been brought to its attention,
• The classes of transactions, account balances, or disclosures for which a fraud risk is likely to exist, and
• Management’s communications, if any, to those charged with governance about its process for identifying and responding to fraud risks, and to employees on its views on appropriate business practices and ethical behavior.

Fraud-related inquiries may also be made of those charged with governance, internal auditors, and others within the entity. Examples of other people that an auditor might ask about fraud risks include the chief ethics officer, in-house legal counsel, and employees involved in processing complex or unusual transactions.

Why are face-to-face meetings essential?

Whenever possible, auditors meet in person with managers and others to discuss fraud risks. That’s because a large part of uncovering fraud involves picking up on nonverbal clues.

Nuances such as an interviewee’s tone and inflection, speed of response, and body language provide important context to the spoken words. An auditor is also trained to notice signs of stress when an interviewee responds to questions, including long pauses before answering or starting answers over.

In addition, in-person interviews provide an opportunity for immediate follow-up questions. When a face-to-face interview isn’t possible, a videoconference or phone call is the next best option because it provides many of the same advantages as meeting in person.

How can you help the process?

While an external audit doesn’t provide an absolute guarantee against fraud, it’s a popular — and effective — antifraud control. You can facilitate the fraud risk assessment by anticipating the types of questions we’ll ask and the types of audit evidence we’ll need. Forthcoming, prompt responses help keep your audit on schedule and minimize unnecessary delays. Contact us for more information before audit fieldwork begins.

How often do you reconcile your company’s internal financial records against your bank statements? Bank reconciliations are an essential internal control procedure that busy owners and managers sometimes overlook or neglect. Here’s why it pays to perform them regularly.

Operational benefits

Weekly or monthly bank reconciliations can improve the accuracy of your company’s financial records. You may uncover errors and omissions, allowing you to take corrective measures before internal problems spiral out of control. Bank reconciliations can also be an effective antifraud control. In addition to revealing fraudulent transactions, bank reconciliations may deter dishonest workers from engaging in criminal activity because they know someone is checking their work.

Moreover, bank recs improve accounts receivable management. For instance, if you notice bounced checks and bank overdraft fees when reconciling deposits, you might consider changing the credit terms for certain high-risk customers.

The reconciliation process

Typically, a bank reconciliation statement starts with the cash balance from the bank statement. After adding deposits in transit and subtracting outstanding checks, you’ll arrive at the adjusted bank balance. In other words, you’re adjusting the bank balance for transactions entered in the company’s books but not yet posted to the bank account.

Next, reference the checking account balance from the company’s accounting records. You’ll arrive at the adjusted book balance after adding interest income and subtracting bank fees. The bank has posted these transactions to the account, but they aren’t yet recorded in the general ledger.

The adjusted bank balance should equal the adjusted book balance. If not, you’ll need to determine the source(s) of the discrepancy.

Automation tools

Accounting software dramatically simplifies the bank reconciliation process by automating much of the matching and reporting. However, it’s not entirely hands-off. Regular review and manual adjustments may still be necessary to ensure accuracy and address discrepancies.

For example, manual review is often necessary for certain transactions that may be unrecognizable due to:

• Discrepancies in dates, amounts, or descriptions,
• Bank errors,
• Duplicate transactions, and
• Adjustments for such items as bank fees, interest income, or manual journal entries.

Initially, accounting personnel may need outside help setting up rules within the software to categorize recurring transactions.

Business intelligence

Reviewing the reports generated by your accounting software can help you manage cash flow more effectively and detect fraudulent activity. For example, you may unearth unauthorized transactions, altered checks, or phishing scams targeting the business’s account.

It’s critical to report fraudulent automated clearing house (ACH) transactions immediately. Reporting timeframes may vary by bank and jurisdiction, with some requiring notification within 24 hours. Notification for fraudulent checks is typically 30 to 60 days but can vary by state and financial institution. The sooner you report fraudulent transactions, the better. It will give you and your bank more time to protect your funds, including closing existing accounts and opening new ones.

From discrepancy to clarity

Regular bank reconciliations are more than bookkeeping tasks — they’re crucial for safeguarding a business’s financial health and operational integrity. Contact us for more information. We can help streamline the reconciliation process, determine the sources of hard-to-find discrepancies, and investigate suspicious activity.

Owners’ equity is the difference between the assets and liabilities reported on your company’s balance sheet. It’s generally composed of two pieces: capital contributions and retained earnings. The former represents the amounts owners have paid into the business and stock repurchases, but the latter may be less familiar. Here’s an overview of what’s recorded in this account.

Statement of retained earnings

Each accounting period, the revenue and expenses reported on the income statement are “closed out” to retained earnings. This allows your business to start recording income statement transactions anew for each period.

Retained earnings represent the cumulative sum of your company’s net income from all previous periods, less all dividends (or distributions) paid to shareholders. The basic formula is:

Retained earnings = Beginning retained earnings + net income − dividends

Typically, financial statements include a statement of retained earnings that sums up how this account has changed in the current period. Net income (when revenue exceeds expenses) increases retained earnings. Conversely, dividends and net losses (when expenses exceed revenue) reduce retained earnings.

Significance of retained earnings

Lenders, investors, and other stakeholders monitor retained earnings over time. They’re an indicator of a company’s profitability and overall financial health. Moreover, retained earnings are part of owners’ equity, which is used to compute certain financial metrics. Examples include:

• Return on equity (net income/owners’ equity),
• Debt-to-equity ratio (total liabilities/owners’ equity), and
• Retention ratio (retained earnings / net income).

A business borrower may be subject to loan covenants based on these ratios. Care must be taken to stay in compliance with these agreements. Unless a lender waives a ratio-based covenant violation, it can result in penalties, higher interest rates, or even default.

Retained earnings management

Profitable businesses face tough choices about allocating retained earnings. For example, management might decide to build up a cash reserve, repay debt, fund strategic investment projects, or pay dividends to shareholders. A company with consistently mounting retained earnings signals that it’s profitable and reinvesting in the business. Conversely, consistent decreases in retained earnings may indicate mounting losses or excessive payouts to owners.

Managing retained earnings depends on many factors, including management’s plans for the business, shareholder expectations, the business stage, and expectations about future market conditions. For example, a strong retained earnings track record can attract investment capital or potential buyers if you intend to sell your business.

Warning: Excessive accumulated earnings can lead to tax issues, particularly for C corporations. Federal tax law contains provisions to prevent corporations from accumulating retained earnings beyond what’s reasonable for business needs. We can prepare detailed business plans to justify an accumulated balance and provide guidance on reasonable dividends to avoid IRS scrutiny.

For more information

Many companies consider dividend payouts and plan investment strategies at year-end. We can help determine what’s appropriate for your situation and answer any lingering questions you might have about your business’s statement of retained earnings.