Buckle up, America: Major tax changes are on the horizon. The reason has to do with tax law and the upcoming elections.

Our current situation

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which generally took effect in 2018, made sweeping changes. Many of its provisions are set to expire on December 31, 2025.

With this date getting closer each day, you may wonder how your federal tax bill will be affected in 2026. The answer isn’t clear because the outcome of this November’s presidential and congressional elections is expected to affect the fate of many expiring provisions. A new political landscape in Washington could also mean other tax law changes.

Corporate vs. individual taxes

The TCJA cut the maximum corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. It also lowered rates for individual taxpayers, with the highest tax rate reduced from 39.6% to 37%. But while the individual rate cuts expire in 2025, the law made the corporate tax cut “permanent.” (In other words, there’s no scheduled expiration date. Tax legislation could still change the corporate tax rate.)

In addition to lowering rates, the TCJA revised tax law in many other ways. On the individual side, standard deductions were increased, significantly reducing the number of taxpayers who benefit from itemizing deductions for certain expenses, such as charitable donations and medical costs. (You benefit from itemizing on your federal income tax return only if your total allowable itemized write-offs for the year exceed your standard deduction.)

In addition, through 2025, certain itemized deductions are eliminated. Others are more limited, including those for home mortgage interest and state and local tax (SALT).

For small business owners, one of the most significant changes is the potential expiration of the Section 199A qualified business income (QBI) deduction. This is the write-off for up to 20% of QBI from noncorporate pass-through entities, including S corporations and partnerships, as well as from sole proprietorships.

The expiring provisions will affect many taxpayers’ tax bills in 2026, unless legislation extending them is signed into law.

Possible scenarios

The outcome of the presidential election in less than five months, as well as the balance of power in Congress, will determine the TCJA’s future. Here are four possible scenarios:

1. All of the TCJA provisions scheduled to expire will actually expire at the end of 2025.
2. All of the TCJA provisions scheduled to expire will be extended past 2025 (or made permanent).
3. Some TCJA provisions will be allowed to expire, while others will be extended (or made permanent).
4. Some or all of the temporary TCJA provisions will expire — and new laws will be enacted that provide different tax breaks and/or different tax rates.

How your tax bill will be affected in 2026 will partially depend on which one of these scenarios becomes reality and whether your tax bill went down or up when the TCJA became effective back in 2018. That was based on a number of factors including your income, your filing status, where you live (the SALT limitation negatively affects more taxpayers in certain states), and whether you have children or other dependents.

Your tax situation will also be affected by who wins the presidential election and who controls Congress. Democrats and Republicans have competing visions about how to proceed when it comes to taxes. Proposals can become law only if tax legislation passes both houses of Congress and is signed by the President (or there are enough votes in Congress to override a presidential veto).

The tax horizon

As the TCJA provisions get closer to expiring, it’s important to know what might change and what tax-wise moves you can make if the law does change. We’ll keep you informed about what’s ahead. We’re here to answer any questions you may have.

Employees, self-employed individuals and employers all pay Social Security tax, and the amounts can get bigger every year. And yet, many people don’t fully understand the Social Security tax they pay.

If you’re an employee

If you’re an employee, your wages are hit with the 12.4% Social Security tax up to the annual wage ceiling. Half of the Social Security tax bill (6.2%) is withheld from your paychecks. The other half (also 6.2%) is paid by your employer, so you never actually see it. Unless you understand how the Social Security tax works and closely examine your pay statements, you may be blissfully unaware of the size of the tax. It’s potentially a lot!

The Social Security tax wage ceiling for 2024 is $168,600 (up from $160,200 for 2023). If your wages meet or exceed that ceiling, the Social Security tax for 2024 will be $20,906 (12.4% x $168,600). Half of that comes out of your paychecks, and your employer pays the other half.

If you’re self-employed

Self-employed individuals (sole proprietors, partners, and LLC members) know all too well how hard the Social Security tax can hit. That’s because they must pay the entire Social Security tax bill out of their own pockets, based on their net self-employment income. For 2024, the Social Security tax ceiling for net self-employment income is $168,600 (same as the wage ceiling for employees). So, if your net self-employment income for 2024 is $168,600 or more, you’ll pay the maximum $20,906 Social Security tax.

Projected future ceilings

The Social Security tax on your 2024 income is expensive enough, but it could get worse in future years — much worse, according to Social Security Administration (SSA) projections. That’s because the Social Security tax ceiling will continue to go up based on the inflation factor that’s used to determine the increases. In turn, maximum Social Security tax bills for higher earners will go up. The latest SSA projections for Social Security tax ceilings for the next nine years are:

• $174,900 for 2025,
• $181,800 for 2026,
• $188,100 for 2027,
• $195,900 for 2028,
• $204,000 for 2029,
• $213,600 for 2030,
• $222,900 for 2031,
• $232,500 for 2032 and
• $242,700 for 2033.

These projected ceilings are not always accurate (they could be higher or lower). If the projected numbers pan out, the maximum Social Security tax on wages and net self-employment income in 2033 will be $30,095 (12.4% x $242,700).

Your future benefits

Despite what you pay in, you might receive more in Social Security benefits than you pay into the system. An Urban Institute report looked at some average situations. For example, a single man who earned average wages every year of his adult life and retired at age 65 in 2020 would have paid about $466,000 in Social Security and Medicare taxes. But he can expect to receive about $640,000 in benefits during retirement. Of course, there are many factors involved, and each situation is unique. Plus, these calculations don’t account for the interest the Social Security tax dollars would have earned over the years.

Some people think the government has set up an account with their name on it to hold money to pay their future Social Security benefits. After all, that must be where those Social Security taxes on wages and self-employment income go. Sorry, but this is incorrect. There are no individual accounts — just a promise from the government.

Is the Social Security system financially solid? It’s on shaky ground. Congress has known that for years and has done nothing about it (although there have been many proposals on how to fix things). A Social Security Administration report states that “benefits are now expected to be payable in full on a timely basis until 2037, when the trust fund reserves are projected to become exhausted. At the point where the reserves are used up, continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay 76% of scheduled benefits.”

The agency adds that “Congress will need to make changes to the scheduled benefits and revenue sources for the program in the future.” These changes could include a higher age to receive full benefits, additional Social Security tax hikes in the form of higher rates, some tax-law revision that effectively implements higher ceilings, or a combination of these.

Stay tuned

The Social Security tax paid by many individuals will continue to go up. If you operate a small business, there may be some strategies than can potentially cut your Social Security tax bill. If you’re an employee, you need to take Social Security into account in your financial planning. Contact us for details.

Many people dream of turning a hobby into a regular business. Perhaps you enjoy boating and would like to open a charter fishing business. Or maybe you’d like to turn your sewing or photography skills into an income-producing business.

You probably won’t have any tax headaches if your new business is profitable over a certain period of time. But what if the new enterprise consistently generates losses (your deductions exceed income), and you claim them on your tax return? You can generally deduct losses for expenses incurred in a bona fide business. However, the IRS may step in and say the venture is a hobby — an activity not engaged in for profit — rather than a business. Then you’ll be unable to deduct losses.

By contrast, if the new enterprise isn’t affected by the hobby loss rules, all otherwise allowable expenses are deductible, generally on Schedule C, even if they exceed income from the enterprise.

Important: Before 2018, deductible hobby expenses could be claimed as miscellaneous itemized deductions subject to a 2%-of-AGI “floor.” However, because miscellaneous deductions aren’t allowed from 2018 through 2025, deductible hobby expenses are effectively wiped out from 2018 through 2025.

How to NOT be deemed a hobby

There are two ways to avoid the hobby loss rules:

1. Show a profit in at least three out of five consecutive years (two out of seven years for breeding, training, showing, or racing horses).
2. Run the venture in such a way as to show that you intend to turn it into a profit maker rather than a mere hobby. The IRS regs themselves say that the hobby loss rules won’t apply if the facts and circumstances show that you have a profit-making objective.

How can you prove you have a profit-making objective? You should operate the venture in a businesslike manner. The IRS and the courts will look at the following factors:

• How you run the activity,
• Your expertise in the area (and your advisors’ expertise),
• The time and effort you expend in the enterprise,
• Whether there’s an expectation that the assets used in the activity will rise in value,
• Your success in carrying on other activities,
• Your history of income or loss in the activity,
• The amount of any occasional profits earned,
• Your financial status, and
• Whether the activity involves elements of personal pleasure or recreation.

Case illustrates the issues

In one court case, partners operated a farm that bought, sold, bred, and raced Standardbred horses. It didn’t qualify as an activity engaged in for profit, according to a U.S. Appeals Court. The court noted that the partnership had a substantial loss history and paid for personal expenses. Also, the taxpayers kept inaccurate records, had no business plan, earned significant income from other sources, and derived personal pleasure from the activity. (Skolnick, CA 3, 3/8/23)

Contact us for more details on turning a hobby into a business, including whether you may be affected by the hobby loss rules and what you should do to avoid tax problems.

Vacation homes in upscale areas may be worth way more than owners paid for them. That’s great, but what about taxes? Here are three scenarios to illustrate the federal income tax issues you face when selling an appreciated vacation home.

Scenario 1: You’ve never used the home as your primary residence

In this case, the home sale gain exclusion tax break (up to $250,000 or $500,000 for a married couple) is unavailable. Your vacation home sale profit will be treated as a capital gain.

If you’ve owned the property for more than one year, the gain will be taxed at no more than the 20% maximum federal rate on long-term capital gains (LTCGs), plus the net investment income tax (NIIT), if applicable. However, the 20% rate only applies to the lesser of:

• Your net LTCG for the year, or
• The excess of your taxable income, including any net LTCG, over the applicable threshold.

For 2024, the thresholds are $518,900 for single filers, $583,750 for married joint filers, and $551,350 for heads of households. If your taxable income is below the applicable threshold, the maximum federal rate on net LTCGs is 15%.

If you also owe the 3.8% NIIT, the effective federal rate on some or all of your net LTCG will be 18.8% (15% + 3.8%) or 23.8% (20% + 3.8%).

You may owe state income tax, too.

Scenario 2: You’ve rented out the vacation home

In this situation, you probably deducted depreciation for rental periods. If so, the federal rate on gain attributable to depreciation (so-called unrecaptured Section 1250 gain) can be up to 25%, assuming you’ve held the property for over one year. You may also owe the 3.8% NIIT on the unrecaptured Section 1250 gain. Any remaining gain will be taxed at the federal rates explained earlier.

Plus, if you rented out the vacation home but used it only a little for personal purposes, it has probably been classified as a rental property for federal tax purposes. If so, you may have had rental losses that couldn’t be deducted currently due to the passive activity loss (PAL) rules. You can deduct these suspended PALs when the property is sold.

Scenario 3: You used the vacation home as a principal residence for a time

In this case, you might be able to claim the tax-saving principal residence gain exclusion break. Specifically, if you owned and used the property as your principal residence for at least two years during the five-year period ending on the sale date, you probably qualify for the exclusion.

There’s another major qualification rule for the home sale gain exclusion tax break. The exclusion is generally available only when you’ve not excluded an earlier gain within the two-year period ending on the date of the later sale. In other words, you generally cannot claim the gain exclusion until two years have passed since you last used it.

Of course, if you have a really big gain from selling your appreciated vacation home, it may be too big to fully shelter with the gain exclusion — even if you qualify for the maximum $250,000/$500,000 break. Assuming you’ve owned the property for more than one year, the part of the gain that can’t be excluded will be an LTCG taxed under the rules explained earlier.

Conclusion

The sale of vacation home tax treatment can get complicated, and we haven’t covered all the potential issues here. However, the tax results are simple if you’ve never rented out the property and never used it as a principal residence. We can fill in the blanks in your situation and answer any questions that you may have.

If your business doesn’t already have a retirement plan, it might be a good time to take the plunge. Current retirement plan rules allow for significant tax-deductible contributions.

For example, if you’re self-employed and set up a SEP-IRA, you can contribute up to 20% of your self-employment earnings, with a maximum contribution of $69,000 for 2024 (up from $66,000 for 2023). If you’re employed by your own corporation, up to 25% of your salary can be contributed to your account, with a maximum contribution of $69,000. If you’re in the 32% federal income tax bracket, making a maximum contribution could cut what you owe Uncle Sam for 2024 by a whopping $22,080 (32% × $69,000).

Other possibilities

There are more small business retirement plan options, including:

• 401(k) plans, which can even be set up for just one person (also called solo 401(k)s),
• Defined benefit pension plans, and
• SIMPLE-IRAs.

Depending on your situation, a tax-favored retirement plan may allow bigger or smaller deductible contributions than a SEP-IRA. For example, for 2024, a participant can contribute $23,000 to a 401(k) plan, plus a $7,500 “catch-up” contribution for those age 50 or older.

Watch the calendar

Thanks to a change made by the 2019 SECURE Act, tax-favored qualified employee retirement plans, except for SIMPLE-IRA plans, can now be adopted by the due date (including any extension) of the employer’s federal income tax return for the adoption year. The plan can then receive deductible employer contributions that are made by the due date (including any extension), and the employer can deduct those contributions on the return for the adoption year.

Important: This provision didn’t change the deadline to establish a SIMPLE-IRA plan. The plan is to take effect on October 1 of the year. Also, the SECURE Act change doesn’t override rules that require certain plan provisions to be in effect during the plan year, such as the provisions that cover employee elective deferral contributions (salary-reduction contributions) under a 401(k) plan. The plan must be in existence before such employee elective deferral contributions can be made.

For example, the deadline for the 2023 tax year for setting up a SEP-IRA for a sole proprietorship business that uses the calendar year for tax purposes is October 15, 2024, if you extend your 2023 tax return. The deadline for making a contribution for the 2023 tax year is also October 15, 2024. For the 2024 tax year, the deadline for setting up a SEP and making a contribution is October 15, 2025, if you extend your 2024 tax return. However, to make a SIMPLE-IRA contribution for the 2023 tax year, you must have set up the plan by October 1, 2023. So, it’s too late to set up a plan for last year.

While you can delay until next year establishing tax-favored retirement plans for this year (except for a SIMPLE-IRA plan), why wait? Get it done this year as part of your tax planning, and start saving for retirement. We can provide more information on small business retirement plan options. Be aware that, if your business has employees, you may have to make contributions for them, too.